Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 23.653125 28.327871 33.465792 39.503039 46.372792 53.916552 62.795841
2025-07-06 15.547092 21.319577 28.329017 37.342525 48.491996 61.694097 78.359845
2025-07-13 12.279797 18.690641 27.079992 38.591078 53.676951 72.463170 97.278037
2025-07-20 10.014339 16.708236 26.051049 39.582645 58.165516 82.244892 115.184505
2025-07-27 8.465204 15.343445 25.506793 40.927645 62.952918 92.441186 133.937250
2025-08-03 7.187449 14.098928 24.871666 41.926607 67.156138 101.918473 152.049121
2025-08-10 5.839266 12.453044 23.349549 41.359255 68.946167 108.037803 165.758178
2025-08-17 4.953990 11.411204 22.597082 41.801993 72.122480 116.129451 182.414723
2025-08-24 4.123322 10.289717 21.533019 41.583846 74.192606 122.630625 196.994231
2025-08-31 3.272091 8.932141 19.849356 40.128947 74.157191 125.936810 207.004451
2025-09-07 2.833190 8.332726 19.437873 40.748412 77.394319 134.207852 224.504350
2025-09-14 2.298634 7.388001 18.229854 39.823452 77.995746 138.417894 236.055589
2025-09-21 2.011403 7.003165 18.151767 41.082359 82.583056 149.433132 258.964174
2025-09-28 1.481036 5.837237 16.287331 38.827153 81.037380 150.756445 267.255290
2025-10-05 1.295935 5.556854 16.274339 40.113027 85.736363 162.290030 291.785107
2025-10-12 1.121572 5.249359 16.144761 41.135264 89.998462 173.260017 315.783928
2025-10-19 0.990926 5.036054 16.198054 42.521752 94.986444 185.611984 342.370819
2025-10-26 0.860950 4.776468 16.092697 43.551349 99.349342 197.061502 367.850763
2025-11-02 0.686756 4.275838 15.283140 42.966617 100.591299 203.215562 384.890584
2025-11-09 0.578433 3.983079 14.965311 43.422922 103.842217 212.928908 408.045090
2025-11-16 0.467846 3.619582 14.380207 43.198094 105.715492 220.274801 427.459769
2025-11-23 0.347534 3.125577 13.308033 41.698448 104.907836 222.798589 438.819914
2025-11-30 0.293980 2.942405 13.135381 42.337006 108.483787 233.296372 463.970631